Lots of Tabs for sale all of a sudden...

DenverJaguar

I guess the Covid buying rush is turning out like they said it would...people seem to be selling their 1-3 year old campers all over. Whereas 3 months ago there were hardly any used campers to be found. I hope some active buyers can get a good deal. I feel a little uneasy about buying at "the top" of the market. $31k for a 320 S with Boondock is so much more than people paid pre-Covid. Supply/demand!

Dutch061

Don't want to sound like a pessimist, because I am more of an "optimistic realist" but you haven't seen anything yet.

As the free money dries up and forbearance comes to an end, you are going to see some major changes.

Houses will be worth about 50% of their current value in 12 months or less. Cars, Trucks, Boats, RV's, and all other manner of things will become available at much lower prices.

I feel sorry for those who have bought while the price is at all time highs (everything listed above) and have financed their purchases. They will suffer the most because you will be forever upside down until you pay the loan off or file bankruptcy. 

The real estate market alone is anticipating 2.5 to 5 million homes will end up back on the market due to forbearance alone. They predict that an additional 11 to 15 million  rental properties will be needed in the next 12 months or less. Not only for the younger people looking to move out from home but also for all of the displaced families. As of April 1st, there were 3.5 million homes delinquent and 1.5 million homes severely delinquent. 

Banks are closing lines of credit again, things are about to change. 

We are close to entering into a season where it will truly be the buyer's market in all aspects.  

Some of this is well published facts and some of this is my speculation. I am not a CPA, banker, or otherwise. 

Brad

CJax

@Dutch061 I like the term "optimistic realist"... I refer to myself as a "cynical optimist"!

Whilst an optimist sees the glass as 1/2 full as opposed to 1/2 empty, a "cynical optimist" or perhaps an "optimistic realist" sees the glass as 1/8 full, never 7/8 empty...  only a negative person would ever say 7/8 empty... ;-)

DenverJaguar

Dutch061 said:

Don't want to sound like a pessimist, because I am more of an "optimistic realist" but you haven't seen anything yet.

As the free money dries up and forbearance comes to an end, you are going to see some major changes.

Houses will be worth about 50% of their current value in 12 months or less. Cars, Trucks, Boats, RV's, and all other manner of things will become available at much lower prices.

I feel sorry for those who have bought while the price is at all time highs (everything listed above) and have financed their purchases. They will suffer the most because you will be forever upside down until you pay the loan off or file bankruptcy. 

The real estate market alone is anticipating 2.5 to 5 million homes will end up back on the market due to forbearance alone. They predict that an additional 11 to 15 million  rental properties will be needed in the next 12 months or less. Not only for the younger people looking to move out from home but also for all of the displaced families. As of April 1st, there were 3.5 million homes delinquent and 1.5 million homes severely delinquent. 

Banks are closing lines of credit again, things are about to change. 

We are close to entering into a season where it will truly be the buyer's market in all aspects.  

Some of this is well published facts and some of this is my speculation. I am not a CPA, banker, or otherwise. 

Brad

Could you cite sources, please? 

gophergrad

Re larger RVs for sale, do you think some of it could be that employers are telling people they can't work remotely anymore, and kids have to go back to in-person school?  If you've spent a chunk of the last 18 months RVing, you probably have to go home now.

I also think the change in fire season may eventually convince me to sell.  If we have major fires all around us June-Sept every year, there isn't much camping season.  

manyman297

I'd have to agree with @Dutch061 to some degree. There are articles all over about the looming forbearance issues people are going to be facing. We've been working with free money too long. The market's current state doesn't make sense but it might be because of all of the money printing we're doing. 

In terms of RVs, if you do plan on paying it off and keeping it long term you'll be fine. Financed and selling short term...different story. If you bought a 400 earlier this year you could sell it now and break even or probably even make money. But if you are buying now I'd be cautious. We paid 33k in December but it seems like people are paying 39k and up for these. To each their own but I wouldn't pay that much for one of these. I had a really hard time justifying what we paid and we paid cash.

Dutch061

@DenverJaguar, pretty simple to do a quick search and find hours of material, plus there are several things on YouTube. Yes, I am well aware that things need to be filtered and not taken for face value.

Here is the first article when I searched for "how many homes are delinquent" from March 1st, 2021

https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2021/03/cfpb-report-11-million-could-be-at-risk-of-losing-homes-as-covid-protections-expire/#:~:text=A%20total%20of%202.1%20million%20mortgages%20are%20considered,are%20behind%20on%20their%20rent%2C%20the%20bureau%20found.

In addition there are several things you can read in regards to renters, which I didn't even mention. In the above referenced article, they mention "11 million families at risk of losing their homes". Keep in mind this is 3 1/2 months old so the number is higher. 

My neighbor is a realtor and confirmed everything that I mentioned as quoted from above "The real estate market alone is anticipating 2.5 to 5 million homes will end up back on the market due to forbearance alone. They predict that an additional 11 to 15 million  rental properties will be needed in the next 12 months or less. Not only for the younger people looking to move out from home but also for all of the displaced families. As of April 1st, there were 3.5 million homes delinquent and 1.5 million homes severely delinquent."

Most realtors would never tell you this or even confirm it being true, they have to make a living in between and telling you (the potential buyer) to wait 6 to 12 months for the drastic price reduction doesn't allow them to make a living. Number one rule of sales is to "sell what's available today". So why would my neighbor you ask, because he is 83 years old and doesn't need to rely on property sales to make a living. 

It is my speculation on what is going to happen with prices dropping and supply surging. 

@manyman297, I am with you 100%. Financing things that depreciate as rapidly as RV's is difficult to justify. I understand that it is the only way for most to be able to do the things they would like to do while they are physically able etc.  Trust me when I say that I have had my share of financial difficulties and was left with a mountain of debt when my former spouse walked out and left me with all of the debt. We were also fortunate enough to be able to pay cash when we bought our 2020 400 BDL in March of 2020 and I am so grateful to the Lord for that. 

Brad

manyman297

@Dutch061 Awesome you were able to pay cash. “Never finance fun” is what I was always told. 

Verna

Always pay cash for “play toys” has always been my motto. That includes T@B, boat, woodworking tools, and electronics. If it is not necessary for existence, I pay cash. If cash is not available, save and it will be there if I was meant to have it. 

webers3

How about impulse buying?

rhyno

webers3 said:

How about impulse buying?

DON'T DO IT!

/i do it...

CJax

Yup. Cash. Always.

NorCalMike

I have a '22 TAB 400 being built this month and am one of those probably paying too much (over $40K here in California).  But I hope to keep it a while and am paying cash so don't care too much.   Frankly the cost of everything is going up and if you compare to an Airstream, they are still less.  Retiring very soon so if my wife and I have fun with it for a few years, I don't really care if I lose a few thousand bucks.  As they say, you can't take it with you and since I live in Cal, my house has already increased in value over $600K anyway.  It will also be our escape vehicle for the next big fire to hit here in Sonoma County. 

ChrisFix

I'm feeling VERY fortunate/lucky to have purchased a 2021 T@B 400 Boondock from Beckley's last June for $33K (and yes to cash only for depreciating assests). I literally just returned from the Blue Ridge Mountains for an escape from the heat, and we enjoy our little 400 as much today as we did on our maiden voyage a year ago. It is a very comfortable and smartly designed and built camper...

Verna

@webers3, the same goes for impulse buying for me—cash for play toys.  I’ve been on my own for 50 years and my adherence to this the rule is strict. 

William_Keever

Lots of talk about about RVs depreciating and that’s true, but T@Bs hold their value better than most, especially those that are pampered. Spoke with someone in person not long ago who had their first T@B 10 years and sold it for just $4000 less than he purchased it. Pretty impressive. And I get the impression his was well used based on his lifestyle. 

RMo

Admittedly 20/20 hindsight but you could have purchased a T@b for 33k in March of 2020 with financing, invested the difference in an S&P index fund and you’d be 10k ahead today.  It all depends on your risk tolerance.  (FYI, we paid cash for ours).

qhumberd

Well you don’t need hindsight if you follow some basic advice I was given some years ago. Find something you would like to invest in and buy it when it is low. Wait until it goes up in price and then sell it. If it doesn’t go up don’t buy it. Works every time.

fstop32

I agree with pretty much all of that.  What goes up always comes down eventually.  One possible bright spot is it might not be so hard to book a campsite a year from now...might not be able to afford the gas to get there though.  Oh well, set it up in the backyard and point it at the best view I've got and I'll still enjoy mine! 

ScottG

Not to toot my own horn (translation: I'm about to toot my own horn...) but I feel VERY VERY fortunate/lucky to have purchased my 2015 brand new, with cash, on impulse, for $17k. I thought that was expensive, but going on seven (mostly) trouble-free seasons, I have zero regrets!  :-)

Getting a campsite, now that's another story...  :-/

Tampakayaker

We lucked out and got our gently used 2016 T@B 320 in September 2019 for $12K.  We had to drive from Tampa to near Atlanta to purchase it after a lengthy search for one in FL. We got in one trip before COVID hit.  Have been on a few since things have eased up.

GatorEgg

I watch vehicle, boat and travel markets for fun.  I said back in April to a couple folks who were fretting over prices not to worry.  I’m guessing September will begin the “buyers” market.  More of the boats and rvs are beginning to pop up.   We’re going 400 shopping!  Woo hoo!

—Edited to remove disparaging political comment— Verna, T@B Admin

Michigan_Mike

I found the remote work theory above interesting and no doubt there could be something to it.  We here in the Midwest aren’t affected by the western fires other than the occasional hazy skies and the orange sunsets created therein.  The real estate market has ballooned and pricing/valuation is through the roof right now.  I sold a lake property last fall and my jaw about hit the floor when the agent told me what he thought I could get for my home.  The listed price was taken and it was well above my guesstimated expectation.  The kicker here was that the appraisal came in about $17K less than asking price but the buyer said they would pay asking price as opposed to risking losing the home.  It’s definitely a sellers market in many parts of the country but what I am seeing is that pricing has become inflated in many instances, there are a lot of junky homes being listed (WAY overpriced!) that are in need of a lot of work, people are dumping homes on the market in a quest for making high dollars on their homes.  But on the flip side, if you don’t have a home to move into and yours sells quickly you have issues to deal with and still will have to pay the higher costs for a similar or higher priced property.  

I pay cash up front too, on vehicles, toys and real estate as I am not going to pay out interest fees unless it is a good deal and with the idea I will pay any loan off quickly.  Credit card companies are nothing short of mafia loans shark operations and it’s unfortunate that many Americans get caught up in this scheme simply because they do no read the small print and buy things on impulse and beyond their financial means.  I too believe that people are in for a nightmare awakening when the real estate boom and values bust and discretionary spending comes to an end as things tumble and tighten up.  

Dutch061

Credit cards are okay but... you have to pay the balance each month. I pay everything with the CC I can and then pay the balance on the card. They pay me to use their money. Now, it hasn't always been that way. I have a former spouse who buried me with CC debt. If I live to be 900 years old and I can get 2K a year back in free money, I might get caught up to what I have paid in the past.... Okay, maybe not quite that long. 

Where people get into trouble is using a credit card to buy things they can't afford to impress people who really don't care. Unfortunately, I have been there and one that too but my current wife hates debt and demands that we pay for things as we go. I agree with her too!

But you are correct, there are plenty that charge close to 30% interest on unpaid balances. Especially travel rewards cards IE airlines, hotels, etc. 

Brad

fstop32

Amen to that @Dutch061!  We went the pay it off every month a loooong time ago and it was the smartest thing we've ever done...well maybe my wife saying "yes" 48 years ago was smarter but this runs a close second 
We paid cash for our 2015 T@b and thanks to corrosion it has almost been totally rebuilt!  It's ready for many years of travel...or sitting in the yard as a low level tree house.

Sunny2WS

I purchased my 1st 2006 T@B 12 years ago for $5000, great condition 🙂. Impulse buy, which I don’t normally do. One of the best purchases I ever made. Just traded it for a new one and got $3000 for the trade (and it was heavily used). Will be interesting to see what the RV market does. 

ChrisK

I just want all these johnny-come-lately campers to go home and stop taking all the campsites. Go back to work people!

Oyaji

If people are dumping their trailers, my guess is that it's because gas prices have soared of late...

[MOD NOTE: Edited to remove political commentary.]

Dutch061

@Oyaji, Ah if it were only gas prices there wouldn't be an issue. 

There are so many there factors at work and involved and I won't post anything related to most of these things on this forum. 

Just remember what someone in history once said, "tell a lie long enough and everyone will believe it, if it is a big lie they will believe it easier".

Brad