Arizona Weather = Suckitude

Nomad

Ya, I'd say I-44 is under a little water... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/30/st-louis-evacuations-mississippi-floods-wreak-havoc-across-three-states ... "warnings are not expected to lift until 7 January" ...

jkjenn

Wanderoo said:

JKJenn -- What websites do you find the best source for predicting weather and incoming storms?

I guess anybody could chime in here if you have a favorite source.  Thanks!

For every day, do I need an umbrella, I use any of the normal services (Accuweather, Weather.com, etc..) They are all going to be mostly right within a 24 hour forecast range. Local weather reports are generally provided by one of these companies to local news stations.

I also subscribe to the NWS field offices in areas where I travel via Twitter. Most are very good at pushing alerts out this way now. I do the same with national and state parks and forests. You get a tremendous amount of detail this way. I usually do a quick check of these things when I stop for a break or to fill up the tank.

I used to bet the farm on Accuweather but they aren't nearly as good since Joe Bastardi left. He know works for a start-up called Weatherbell. Joe does a daily video where he discussed the latest weather model guidance and compares the weather signals to years with similar patterns. It is a paid service, however. Since I plan photo trips months in advance (because of the distance) I really depend on higher quality long range forecasts. Weatherbell has many private clients in the energy and agriculture field that depend on quality forecasting, as well. With a Weatherbell subscription, I halso have access to high resolution weather model maps. I usually only subscribe int he winter, however.

When I expect severe weather, I go straight to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) from NOAA/NWS. The guidance is more geared towards meteorologists than the average person, however. I have studied enough metereology to get by and understand, in general what both Bastardi and the NWS means in their discussion, but it does take a little effort. However, the SPC has a part of their website called, "Outlooks" that will show you what the percentage chances are that you will experience severe weather. It also has fire weather outlooks.

If I know there is a lot of snow or rain coming, I go to the Weather Prediction Center (formerly, the Hydrologic Prediction Center) for their QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.) From this website, I get a good idea of how much snow or rain to expect. If I know the amount of liquid precipitation forecasted and know the forecasted 850mb temps, I can get a good feel on snow amounts.

Most local TV weather guys and gals are not true meteorologists and take the first forecast the computer spits out. There are some notable exceptions, Matt Noyes in NE, Brad Panovich in Charlotte, Spann out of the deep south, Kate Bilo out of Philly and others, but more often than not these are people who go to a 6-12 week class on the weather. In 2010, we had a storm coming and I predicted 18-24". The local guys blew it. Some calling for as little as 1-3" inches, although , they started to change it quickly as the storm was upon us, but no one predicted more than 12". We ended up with around 24". I was at a NWS storm spotter training at local university that year when one of the students asked the NWS guy why no one accurately predicted the snowfall., He said they thought it could happen but no one would have taken them seriously.

My navigation/UConnect on my new Jeep has a live radar map that shows frontal boundaries as well as watch and warning areas - I am in weather geek heaven.

Long answer to a simple question  - sorry for the painful details.

Verna

PXLated said:

Well of course, you had to make sure your fancy heat vents worked ;-)

I know it works on electric...It's been steady at 68* all week in the T@B.

Wanderoo

Thanks, Jenn.  That is exactly the information I was hoping to get.  Very much appreciated.  I'll have time to study meteorology now that I'll be retired. 

jkjenn

Wanderoo said:

Thanks, Jenn.  That is exactly the information I was hoping to get.  Very much appreciated.  I'll have time to study meteorology now that I'll be retired. 

Awesome! It keeps me up at night during the winter - waiting for the 0Z weather models to roll in.... lol. How much snow will we get. Needless to say, I have had a lot of sleep lately. Still no more than dusting all winter here.

PITPAT

I took one last look at the weather maps and listened to the Governor of Missouri warning that Mighty Mississippi won't crest till Friday. So I left Pgh this morning for Columbus, picked up my new Zamp 120w solar panel and headed south west to Louisville Ky. I will cross the Mississippi at Cairo Illinois tomorrow morning, hopefully a non-event. 

jkjenn

PITPAT said:

I took one last look at the weather maps and listened to the Governor of Missouri warning that Mighty Mississippi won't crest till Friday. So I left Pgh this morning for Columbus, picked up my new Zamp 120w solar panel and headed south west to Louisville Ky. I will cross the Mississippi at Cairo Illinois tomorrow morning, hopefully a non-event. 

Looks like pretty clear steering based on the weather. Drive safely!

RZRBUG

PITPAT said:

I took one last look at the weather maps and listened to the Governor of Missouri warning that Mighty Mississippi won't crest till Friday. So I left Pgh this morning for Columbus, picked up my new Zamp 120w solar panel and headed south west to Louisville Ky. I will cross the Mississippi at Cairo Illinois tomorrow morning, hopefully a non-event. 

Patty, best of luck to you.  I know you have access to the DOT maps and have looked at them.  I don't know how or if I-57 at Cairo is effected, but I did hear that the town was ordered evacuated earlier.  Fingers crossed for you.  I know you will see more water than you probably ever seen before.

Wanderoo

PITPAT -- Safe travels.  My thoughts are with you, but I know you will listen to the weather reports. Be smart, be safe.  Hope to see you in Arizona!!!!

jkjenn

@PITPATwatch the Ohio in KY and IL as some bridges over it are closed.

Maybe you could put the T@b on a barge in Sewickley and float south!

PITPAT

@Wanderoo ....Beth, you WILL see me in Arizona if determination plays its role!
RZRBUG...last night I-57 was passable. It's 7:00 am here in Louisville and I'm about to check today's routing!   @ jkjenn's...lol, the barge idea crossed my mind a few times yesterday seeing swollen rivers and fields next to them. I could lounge inside the warm & toasty T@B and rewatch the entire series of Downton Abbey!

Tabaz

The factory just announced their "T@B River Adventure" model.  Some assembly required.  Includes outboard motor and view deck.  Prices to be announced.

ChanW

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere in the Tab specs that the Tab will float. 

Just need to plug that vent hole under the fridge.

Tabaz

Yep. Right there in the Owner's Manual, page 103, "Use in Navagatble Waterways." I believe the fridge plug is available for $32.

Ratkity

*snort*  I'm dying here!!! 

Tabaz

Chan - Just to clarify.  Page 102 deals with "Use ON Navigable Waterways" while Page 103 deals with those owners who neglect to purchase the $32 fridge plug.  Sorry for any confusion.

jkjenn

If sinking begins to occur, call Ed at the factory or private message @Verna.

ChanW

OutbackAZ, does LG also offer that nice multi-purpose d(r)iving suit that you're picturing?

I missed that!

That would definitely be helpful in Missouri this week.

Verna

jkjenn said:

If sinking begins to occur, call Ed at the factory or private message @Verna.

Thanks for the confidence in me, Jenn, but I'm still sitting here at home, using the excuse of organizing my T@B and truck so I don't have to deal with flooding. I guess I'll leave tomorrow. At least I won't have to move 10 things to find where I hid "that thingy"!

And my 200 watt solar panel suitcase fits upright in the back seat with the seats down-Yippee!  And the ARB is back there, too.

Tabaz

Chan - that's actually the suit I wear at the dump stations.  The drains on the Outback are hard to find because the aluminum platform covers them.

Nomad

OutbackAZ :-) - Sounds like Outbacks need to be extended. Not a real big job. I had to have one replaced last year (cracked). If anyone happens to be in the Kingman, AZ area, Trotters does a good work. Best part, no appointments, first come first served. Get there at opening and you're in/out in no time.

jkjenn

There is always the mysterious T@b-toon boat venture.

ChanW

Interesting camper, made to look like a pontoon boat. 

I don't think it floats though. They didn't show it in the water at all.

That outboard motor must be for keeping the mosquitoes away.

jkjenn said:

There is always the mysterious T@b-toon boat venture.

Sgtjohn

OutbackAZ said:

Yep. Right there in the Owner's Manual, page 103, "Use in Navagatble Waterways." I believe the fridge plug is available for $32.

Yes!  I see that it says one can use it on the Marine Highway from Bremerton. WA to Whittier if a GPS is used!  I'm sure I can see some whales on the way!  I see in the footnotes that the waste tanks have to be pressurized for flotation.

ChanW

Ah, pressurized air. That makes sense. Then there would be more of it in there!

So that's how they get rocket ships to go up in the sky. Using highly pressurized liquid oxygen?

Sorry PXL. I think we may have gotten a bit off-topic here.

Nomad

Yep, way left of field - What was the topic again?

Verna

It's called 28* in Bowling Green, KY tonight. I don't think I'm going to be un-winterizing for a few days. 

Nomad

Verna - It's not any warmer in southern AZ. Or hasn't been. 10 day overnight forcast for Quartzite for instance is mid 30s.

Nomad

lunafemme - Just spent a week in Quartzite - Cold the whole time - Alde ran constantly at night. With the breeze during the day it was chilly also. Make sure your propane is full :-)
What's weird is it's forcast warmer both north and south - Lake Havasue City and Yuma - Night in the 40s vs 30s
Check the wind forcasts also - I was up at 3:30am taking my Visor down - Ended up with 35 gusting to 50 all that day - Lots of damaged canopys/tents from what I heard.

mickietucs

Wish it would stay like this - 72 today in Tucson   (but I understand another storm system will be moving through so cold the next few days).